Barack Obama's announcement today of his presidential candidacy naturally raises the question of whether he can win, the answer to which is yes. He can win, but that doesn't mean he will.
One big gaffe on Obama's part and he's toast. The same can be said of Hillary Clinton or John Edwards or anybody else in either party who emerges as a front-runner.
As The Rascal sees it, it's too early to bet for any candidate, but not too early to bet against more than a few (for various reasons).
My money says you can already write off the following announced or potential candidates (in no particular order): Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Dennis Kucinich, George Pataki and --remember where you heard it -- John McCain.
That leaves a passel of relatively strong contenders and comparative longshots, including (in addition to Clinton, Edwards and Obama) Sam Brownback, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack, Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Chuck Hagel, Al Gore and probably a few other people I'm forgetting.
The best bet now -- mainly because you probably can get some takers -- is against McCain. Mr. Straight Talk, my ass! I can't understand why so many moderate-liberals like this guy. But it doesn't matter. The Republican right-wing won't let him get the GOP nomination.
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