Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Can Bob Abboud defeat Don Manzullo?

Barrington Hills Mayor Bob Abboud (right) announced Monday in Rockford that he'll seek the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbent U.S. Rep. Don Manzullo next year in the 16th Congressional District of Illinois.

Does Abboud have a chance in what's considered a fairly safe Republican district?

Well, according to somebody named Sean on the Swing State Project (I can't provide a direct link, because the post at issue is gone), a Democratic victory is not out of the question:

What a Democrat must do to win the district is not that hard. They must run at least even in the small counties along the Wisconsin border like Boone, Stephenson, and hold Manzullo to about 53% in Jo Daviess, 55% in Carroll, and to 58% in Ogle. As for the big population centers, they have to win big in Winnebago county(about 57%), and hold Manzullo to 56% in the district's portion of McHenry county.


Henry said...

Rascal -
This guy is articulate, thoughtful, and maybe he can raise enough money to mount a credible campaign. He seemed a little stumped on a few questions while on local talk radio, but I think he is on a learning curve as far as developing positions pertinent to a congressional race. Anti-war, pro-choice, moderate stance on gun control, he seems to be a moderate lefty. What's your take on his chances?

The Rascal said...

I'm concerned that Abboud is off and running before he's sufficiently organized. He made his candidacy announcement even before he has a Web site. I hope he's savvy enough to have somebody who can coordinate his Internet efforts. There's also a need to thoroughly research Manzullo's voting record, which should be juicy pickings for campaign material. Well, we'll see.