Oh, by the way...

The new political wisdom says that Mike Huckabee's victory in Iowa, which scares the bejesus out of establishment Republicans, is a big boost to John McCain's candidacy (see the previous post).

But consider this: Obamania is likely to attract a lot of independent voters to the Democratic primary election in New Hampshire next Tuesday. Those are independent voters who won't be available to McCain to help him gain new traction on the Republican side.

If Huckabee wins in New Hampshire, he's going to be hard to stop, no matter the fervent wishes of his party's elders.

Now what?

In the wake of Iowa's stunning results, the 2008 presidential race suddenly turns a corner and heads down a path so strange that John McCain, with only a fourth-place finish Thursday night, is now seen as a much stronger contender for the Republican nomination.

How weird is that?

BooMan says Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney are finished and predicts that Barack Obama will defeat McCain in November.

The Politicker explains why Mike Huckabee's victory is good news for McCain.

Arianna Huffington wonders if the outbreak of Obamania might be just a fleeting thing.

The Rockford Rascal says it won't be fleeting and offers this bit of eloquence as evidence:

Huckabee wins Iowa!

I predicted that Romney would win on the Republican side. I was wrong -- and I love it.

Mike Huckabee wins by a wide margin, and Democrats everywhere have cause to lick their chops.

The Republican establishment, on the other hand, will experience a pronounced worsening of its Huckabee panic.

Iowa predictions

From around the blogosphere (leftward and rightward alike), educated guesses on the outcomes of the Iowa presidential caucuses can be found here and here and here and here. Check out the comments on those sites, as well.

My own predictions, published three days ago, are here. (I'd be glad to be proven wrong on my picks for winners in both parties. If Obama and Huckabee win, I'll be more than delighted.)

Here's a fun glimpse inside politics

The Washington Post has an entertaining piece on grizzled political pro Ed Rollins and his adventures inside the Mike Huckabee campaign.

Sympathy for the Devil

Mike Huckabee plays bass guitar in a rock band, an avocation clearly at moral odds with the teachings of Dr. Bill Gothard, a godly man who founded the Institute in Basic Life Principles.

Among the many publications circulated by Gothard's ministry is something called "Ten Scriptural Reasons Why the Rock Beat is Evil in Any Form."

Of course, Gothard's not the first or only Christian to denounce rock music as devilish. But he's also a big-time supporter of Mike Huckabee's presidential candidacy. So, there's an inconsistency here. Some might even call it hypocrisy.

Justin Jeffre has written this letter to Gothard, asking him to prevail upon Huckabee to renounce his favor for satanic music.

If gambling weren't sinful, I'd bet that Gothard won't say anything to Huckabee about this matter. He seems to lack the courage to speak truth to power.

Is Huckabee toast?

Ron Fournier suggests that the former Arkansas governor has pulled one stunt too many.

UPDATE: There's more on Huckleberry's screw-up here.

Uh-oh! Bushes shun the C-word

This is an outrage. Just when Fox News and us other guardians of the purity of Christmas had the secularists on the run, our own president betrays us.

George W. Bush, on behalf of his wife and his own self, has sent a message to the men and women of the U.S. military in which he wishes them "a joyful holiday season." Joyful holiday season! But there's no mention of Christmas or the true meaning of the holiday.

If you don't believe me, check it out here on the White House Web site.

It's a wonder he didn't mention Rudolph or Santa or some other phony icon of the season.

Well, this kind of thing won't happen when Mike Huckabee's president. No, sir.

GOP elite gripped by Huckabee panic

Here's another report on the hysteria among Republican establishment types over the unsettling thought that theocrat Mike Huckabee might win the party's presidential nomination.

Go, Mike, go! Give 'em heck (if you'll excuse my French).

Huckabee will win GOP nomination?

That's what this guy says.

I'm not so sure. I think Romney still has a decent chance.

McCain? His prospects are exceedingly slim. He's a long, long, long shot.

Giuliani? Thompson? No way for either of them. They're toast.

Ron Paul? C'mon. Get serious.

UPDATE: Bob Novak, the Prince of Darkness, writes of infighting on the Religious Right over Huckabee's candidacy.

Rudy's fading fast

Too bad.

It would have been great fun to see the Democratic presidential nominee do battle with Rudy Giuliani in the general election campaign.

It also would have been entertaining to see how the right-wingers in the Republican Party cope with the spectacle of having a thrice-married, pro-choice, pro-gay rights guy as their standard-bearer.

But it's not to be. Rudy is sinking like a stone and will be out of the race before Valentine's Day.

Meanwhile, let's all hope that Mike Huckabee wins the GOP nomination. That, too, would be big fun.

Still more Huckabee panic

Marc Ambinder assesses the latest in what he calls "the conservative counter-revolution" against religious rightist Mike Huckabee.

This sure is fun to watch, for reasons I previously noted here.

Huckabee says "Paul is dead!"

Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, in response to criticisms that his latest TV ad uses a subliminal religious message, said Tuesday:

"I will confess this: If you play the spot backwards it says, 'Paul is dead. Paul is dead.'"

The reference is to a rumor of 38 years ago that then-Beatle Paul McCartney had died and been replaced by a look-a-like. Peddlers of the rumor insisted that subliminal clues to Paul's demise were included on certain Beatles recordings, some of them discernible only by playing the records backwards.

The Huckabee ad has attracted darts even from Bill Donahue, a self-appointed guardian of Christianity in general and the Catholic Church in particular against what he sees as bigotry.

POSTSCRIPT: According to some sources -- this one, for example -- the "Paul is dead" rumor was started in Oct., 1969, by the Northern Star, the campus paper at Northern Illinois University in DeKalb, just down the road from world headquarters of The Rockford Rascal.

More on the breakup of the Republican coalition

Some of the stuff I had here and here in recent days is touched upon in this newer wrapup from Kos, but it also has other stuff on the matter.

Take the time. It's the most important political story of the winter so far. The race for the Republican presidential nomination could well spark a civil war in party ranks, and that could significantly effect the national political scene for years.

The Party of Lincoln, as some people call it, is about to go through another one of its historic changes.

A political ad that says it's not a political ad

The Huckabee Fault Line

As I mentioned here the other day, some prominent conservative pundits are alarmed at Mike Huckabee's sudden move to the front of the Republican presidential pack. This pack of notable right-wing commentators continues to grow in size and vehemence.

The upshot of this trend is that the Republican coalition faces a clear and present danger of falling apart. For decades now, the party's foreign-policy conservatives, corporate conservatives and libertarian-types have been willing to play patty-cake with the more rabid specimens among the social and religious conservatives, just to keep them in the tent -- so long as none of their wackier legislative schemes became national policy. But the Huckabee surge has gained sufficient momentum that it now requires a stern blowback from the GOP's comparative sophisticates.

This creates a political fault line that could take years to heal. It's not likely that Huckabee will get the nomination, and his defeat might well prompt his theocratic supporters to wax bitter against the other Republicans who actively opposed him. Folks on the Religious Right might finally realize that they've been played for suckers. And if Huckabee somehow wins the nomination, the party's elite will abandon him. Either way, the GOP could become badly splintered.

UPDATE: Arianna Huffington offers this assessment of the situation.

UPDATE II: Cynthia Tucker has this.

Right-wing scribe fears GOP "Huckacide"

Rich Lowry, editor of the conservative magazine National Review, sees a disaster for the Republicans if the party nominates Mike Huckabee for president.

Of course, there'd also be a disaster for the GOP if the nod goes to Rudy Giuliani, who would drive away evangelicals by the droves.

These are not happy times for Republicans.

This is funny

This ad was not approved by Mike Huckabee:

Huckabee: Wives should submit to husbands

Yeah, this should win Mike Huckabee a lot of votes among women (at least the kind who let men tell them that the Bible mandates sexism).

Huckabee would love this video.

Drudge says Dems rooting for Huckabee

The theory is that the religious extremist from Arkansas would be, by far, the easiest Republican to beat in next year's presidential election.

The Rascal has long figured that Rudy Giuliani would be the most likely pushover. But, upon reflection and in light of recent events, I'm beginning to see the logic of hoping that Huckabee gets the GOP nod.

Actually, I don't see any of the Republican candidates as tough to beat.

Romney? Flip-flopper whose Mormonism would drive away lots of evangelicals. Thompson? Boring and out of his league. McCain? Craven geriatric whose straight-talk pretensions have long since worn thin; besides, the GOP right-wing base doesn't trust him. Tancredo? Paul? Hunter? Get serious.