Obamania hits Granite State

The junior senator from Illinois has jumped out to a lead of 10 percentage points over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.

Fox News wimps afraid of Ron Paul

Roger Ailes, the dude who runs Fox News, is a big buddy of Rudy Giuliani, which explains this.

Oh, by the way...

The new political wisdom says that Mike Huckabee's victory in Iowa, which scares the bejesus out of establishment Republicans, is a big boost to John McCain's candidacy (see the previous post).

But consider this: Obamania is likely to attract a lot of independent voters to the Democratic primary election in New Hampshire next Tuesday. Those are independent voters who won't be available to McCain to help him gain new traction on the Republican side.

If Huckabee wins in New Hampshire, he's going to be hard to stop, no matter the fervent wishes of his party's elders.

Now what?

In the wake of Iowa's stunning results, the 2008 presidential race suddenly turns a corner and heads down a path so strange that John McCain, with only a fourth-place finish Thursday night, is now seen as a much stronger contender for the Republican nomination.

How weird is that?

BooMan says Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney are finished and predicts that Barack Obama will defeat McCain in November.

The Politicker explains why Mike Huckabee's victory is good news for McCain.

Arianna Huffington wonders if the outbreak of Obamania might be just a fleeting thing.

The Rockford Rascal says it won't be fleeting and offers this bit of eloquence as evidence:

Obama wins!

Well, I got the winners in both parties wrong.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney was much weaker than I had expected. And among the Democrats, I had figured that John Edwards had a better ground game than Barack Obama and that Hillary Clinton was fading.

With some precincts still to report, it looks like Clinton will finish third, a psychological disaster for her campaign.

Clinton has enough money, organization and popular support to soldier on, but if she finishes third tonight, she is badly wounded. Edwards, in second place, has dodged a proverbial bullet.

Huckabee wins Iowa!

I predicted that Romney would win on the Republican side. I was wrong -- and I love it.

Mike Huckabee wins by a wide margin, and Democrats everywhere have cause to lick their chops.

The Republican establishment, on the other hand, will experience a pronounced worsening of its Huckabee panic.

How does Chris Matthews keep his job?

Tweety, as they call him, is billed by MSNBC as a man of keen political insights. The record to the contrary is voluminous and now includes this ridiculous entry.

UPDATE: Here's a video montage of Matthews making the curious case that John McCain will be a "hero" and a comer if he gets 18 percent in tonight's caucuses while Hillary Clinton will suffer humiliating "rejection" if she gets 32 percent on the Democratic side.

Iowa predictions

From around the blogosphere (leftward and rightward alike), educated guesses on the outcomes of the Iowa presidential caucuses can be found here and here and here and here. Check out the comments on those sites, as well.

My own predictions, published three days ago, are here. (I'd be glad to be proven wrong on my picks for winners in both parties. If Obama and Huckabee win, I'll be more than delighted.)

Frederick of Hollywood ready to quit

Fred Thompson, whose bid for the Republican presidential nomination was doomed from the start, is going to pack it in if he doesn't do well in Iowa tonight, which is a foregone conclusion.

I still can't figure out why anybody thought this guy had a chance. Sure, he's a Hollywood actor, but his on-screen charms, such as they are, haven't transferred well to the political arena. He comes off as a grumpy sort, not the kind of person America wants in the White House. Beyond that problem, he's also been an inept campaigner.

It'll be interesting to see where Rep. Don Manzullo, our congressman here in RascalLand, shifts his allegiance once Freddy is out of the race.

UPDATE: Kos has more on Thompson's imminent departure from the race.

What if Edwards wins Iowa?

If John Edwards finishes first in Thursday night's Democratic presidential caucuses in Iowa (which I predicted here a few days ago), the race for the nomination might last a lot longer than would otherwise be the case.

BooMan analyzes the situation here.

POSTSCRIPT: I have to admit that I've lost a little of the confidence I had in my prediction that Edwards will win in Iowa. My radar is picking up on a last-minute rush toward Barack Obama. But I'll stick with my Edwards pick.

This is beyond bad

The Rudy Giuliani camp has taken complete leave of its senses with this commercial, which only dramatizes the emptiness of Rudy's baseless posturing as a tough guy who knows how to protect us from the boogeyman.

I don't figure he wins over even one voter with this spot; quite the opposite, I expect.

Here's a fun glimpse inside politics

The Washington Post has an entertaining piece on grizzled political pro Ed Rollins and his adventures inside the Mike Huckabee campaign.

A conservative politely deconstructs Romney

David Brooks of The New York Times praises Mitt Romney, then buries him.

Sympathy for the Devil

Mike Huckabee plays bass guitar in a rock band, an avocation clearly at moral odds with the teachings of Dr. Bill Gothard, a godly man who founded the Institute in Basic Life Principles.

Among the many publications circulated by Gothard's ministry is something called "Ten Scriptural Reasons Why the Rock Beat is Evil in Any Form."

Of course, Gothard's not the first or only Christian to denounce rock music as devilish. But he's also a big-time supporter of Mike Huckabee's presidential candidacy. So, there's an inconsistency here. Some might even call it hypocrisy.

Justin Jeffre has written this letter to Gothard, asking him to prevail upon Huckabee to renounce his favor for satanic music.

If gambling weren't sinful, I'd bet that Gothard won't say anything to Huckabee about this matter. He seems to lack the courage to speak truth to power.